作者:宋鸿兵 来源:江南app网址 日期:2013-05-02 点击:
乌有之乡编者注:本站7月20号转发的《东方日报》的《刘梦熊:我为人民鼓与呼》 《刘梦熊:质问中央财金当局》 《柳扶风:不像中圈套那么简单》三篇文章被勒令删除,同时还命令删除时寒冰、水火等人相关文章。然而中南海对刘梦熊政协委员的意见是相当重视的,“中南海当天就作出指令,指派外交部驻香港特区特派员公署,当天紧急找刘梦熊约谈,了解他的想法,听取他的建议”。现在这三篇文章在其他很多网站仍可以看到。
http://bbs.thol.net/redirect.php?tid=16350&goto=lastpost&sid=AWxQtf
宋鸿兵:港区全国政协委员、金融专家刘梦熊表达了我们的一贯主张,即金融系统也应当与其它行业一样实行问责制。对重大失误要向全国人民有个交待。要追究有关责任人的法律责任。刘梦熊质疑道:中国买的是高风险,比例又这么大,这太不寻常了。这是谁建议这样做的,谁论证的,谁拍板的,谁批准的,谁去实施的,其中究竟有没有黑幕,按国际金融交易惯例,购买债券、股票的中介有佣金可收,佣金是百分之二点五,三万亿的百分之二点五,就是七百五十亿,所得的佣金流向如何,有没有人以权谋私,中饱私囊?问得好!《货币战争〉在中国金融界是人所共知。书中早就警告了“二房”的巨大风险。无论是用“无知”或是“愚蠢”都不能解释为什么有关方面不但不规避风险,反而顶风作案,拼命加大对美国垃圾债券的投资力度。唯一的解释是这里有鬼。但还并不仅仅是中饱私囊这么简单!而更可能是里应外合搞垮中国的总体战略的一个组成部分。这个案子国家安全部一旦介入,将不难发现其中的奥秘。
中国投资美房债巨亏被质疑
http://www.yzzk.com/cfm/Content_Archive.cfm?Channel=ag&Path=2311530102/30ag1a.cfm
亚洲周刊江迅/港区全国政协委员、金融专家刘梦熊撰写《我为人民鼓与呼》一文,引发各界关注,中南海亦派人找他问计。刘梦熊认为,中国外汇储备投资美国「房利美」、「房贷美」失误,应追究责任。
美国联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Federal National Mortgage Association,简称Fannie Mae即「房利美」)、联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation,简称Freddie Mac即「房贷美」),这一对略带脂粉气译名的姐妹花,正成为中国金融界关注的焦点:为什么中国外汇储备会经不起这对姐妹花(下称「两房」)的诱惑,竟跌入陷阱?
七月十七日,香港区全国政协委员、金融专家刘梦熊撰写的《我为人民鼓与呼》一文,在香港三家媒体以整版篇幅发表,旋即成为数百家网上论坛的热点。刘梦熊疾言厉色质问中央财金当局有关拍板人:你们这班败家子哪里来这么大的胆子,拿国家人民的钱,来买天文数字的「两房」股票。现在「两房」基本上已破产,你们如何向全国人民交代?「如此离谱决策有没有黑幕,人大常委会应立即组织特别调查组彻查,追究责任
刘文发表后,犹如闹市中引爆炸弹,引起社会各界,特别是金融乃至经济界强烈反响,在北京财经当局也引发了一场「地震」,中南海当天就作出指令,指派外交部驻香港特区特派员公署,当天紧急找刘梦熊约谈,了解他的想法,听取他的建议。
刘梦熊在《我为人民鼓与呼》中说:「美国两家『巨无霸』抵押机构『两房』崩盘引致的金融风暴震撼全球,各国股市插水式下跌。见惯风浪的金融大鳄索罗斯也惊呼是他『一生中最为严重的金融危机』。令人震惊的是,据通讯社报道,中国竟然是『两房』名列榜首的外国债权人,一共持有涉及该两间公司约三千七百六十三亿美元(相当于二万九千三百二十八亿港元)债眞,约占中国外汇储备总额百分之二十一。这简直是一件匪夷所思的天大丑闻!」
有香港学者认为,「像刘梦熊那样以全国政协委员身份公开提出质疑的做法,历来少见」;内地有网友留言说:「看来又一个敢言的政协委员要下台了」;有亲友提醒刘梦熊:「共产党给你那么高的荣誉,你还要发表这么尖锐的意见,还想不想混?」七月二十日,刘梦熊接受亚洲周刊访问时说:「如此离谱决策,如此弥天大祸,试问,身为参政议政的全国政协委员,身为置身金融界三十多年的专业人士,如果噤若寒蝉,对得起人民的嘱托和自己的良知吗?」
他说:「民族英雄林则徐有诗云『苟利国家身死已,岂因祸福避趋之』。二零零八年是彭德怀大将军一百一十周年诞辰,他当年在庐山会议犯颜直谏,发出『我为人民鼓与呼』,看到对国家和人民不利的就要挺身而出。作为全国政协委员,不只是做『擦鞋委员』、『鼓掌委员』,政府做得好,应该鼓掌,但财经当局捅了这么大的漏子,犯这么低级而又严重的错误,我能不挺身而出吗?」以下是访谈摘要。
三万亿资金投放「两房」,问题要害何在?
美国「两房」崩盘震撼全球。而中国财金当局将五分之一以上外汇储备即三千七百六十三亿美元投入「两房」,成为最大外国债权人,这一愚不可及的做法更是震惊中外。从事这一行都知道,怎么能把一个国家的外汇储备的百分之二十多集中投在一个地方,这是异乎寻常的。要害是两个原则。
哪两个原则?
外汇储备不是一个国家的净资产。每一美元的外汇储备都要央行用相应人民币兑换回来,与商业银行管理的资产没分别。举例说,你在北京,是中国人民银行,我在澳大利亚汇了一美元到你帐上,国家户口就多了一美元外汇储备,但你到银行拿一美元时,中国人民银行花八元人民币给你兑换这一美金。你要去日本公干,又把八元人民币换回一元美金带出国,那外汇储备就变成零了
因此,正看是资产,反看是负债,是一种国际收支帐而已。从理论上讲,要准备外汇储备中有相当多热钱和外资是要流走的。外汇储备不是你的净资产,只是存在你银行里而已,人家可以存,也可以提,存在你那里,所有权、支配权不在你那里,你只有管理权而已。因此外汇储备的投资就不能有风险,更不能有高风险,安全第一,稳健至上。这是一个原则。第二是分散原则。通常说有美元、欧元、日圆,有黄金、白银,有债券,有对冲活动,总之要套利,十拿十稳。安全、分散都是公认原则。
其它国家的外汇储备有没有投入「两房」?
同样是亚洲大国印度,它同样是金砖四国之一,印度「两房」债眞持有量才二千三百万美元而已,人家是意思意思,聊胜于无,中国是印度的一万六千倍,差不多是三万亿港币。这样投进「两房」太没道理了,不能只集中在一个菜篮里,这是金科玉律。外汇储备投资原则是安全第一,稳健至上,比重分散,结构多元
你提出全国人大常委会应立即组织特别调查组彻查并追究责任,理据何在?
中国买的是高风险,比例又这么大,这太不寻常了。这是谁建议这样做的,谁论证的,谁拍板的,谁批准的,谁去实施的,其中究竟有没有黑幕,按国际金融交易惯例,购买债券、股票的中介有佣金可收,佣金是百分之二点五,三万亿的百分之二点五,就是七百五十亿,所得的佣金流向如何,有没有人以权谋私,中饱私囊。我不明白,究竟是外汇管理局的问题,还是财政部的问题,还是中国人民银行的问题?外汇储备的投资运作有哪些专家论证?决策民主化科学化如何体现?流程如何?有无权力制约机制设置?这么大损失,如果有黑幕的话,有里通外国的话,是不可饶恕的犯罪。应有人对此丢乌纱帽甚至人头落地。中央应从决策、操作乃至监管、制约机制,直到外储投资方向、原则来个通盘检讨。
中国政府目前又能做什么?
当务之急是「补镬」。首先,中国政府应紧急动员外交系统,联络日本、新加坡、开曼群岛、卢森堡、韩国等众多「两房」债券受害国财金负责人和政府首脑「大串连」,邀集他们统一立场和行动,要求美国政府对「两房」负起监管和承担之责,为「两房」五万亿美元债券作担保,促其维护美国国际信用
其次,中国政府和「两房」债券受害国应合作,以美国投资者也握有三万七千亿美元「两房」债券为由,游说美国国会议员向政府施压,挽救「两房」免于破产。第三,中央政府应立即对相关部门和责任人彻查究责。第四,目前掌管国家外汇储备的机构应该立即改组,要依照严格监管、有效制约、充分论证、高效实施、防范风险的原则重组外储管理机构
外汇储备的投资必须恪守「安全第一,稳健至上,比重分散,结构多元」原则。第五,中国是「世界工厂」,对石油、煤炭、铁矿、铜矿、木材、橡胶、纸浆、小麦等大宗物资有强劲的长期需求,但中国实际上「地大物不博」,因此,外储投资应向能源、矿产等海外并购倾斜,保障国家可持续发展。
附文:
纽约时报:“二房”的生死抉择(看完令我倒抽一口冷气)
货币战争:看完这篇文章令我倒抽一口冷气!WILLIAM POOLE可不是一般的评论作家,他可是美联储的重量级人物,同时还是CATO这种极高级别的精英俱乐部成员。我不认为他仅仅是在发表个人见解!他的思路就是让“二房”在5-10年内“安乐死”,同时死去的还有1.3万亿美元的外国债权人的利益!!!其中也包括中国的3760亿美元“二房”的白条。这是一种闻所未闻的赖帐行为,也是一种彻头彻尾的恶意欺诈!读过《Atlas Shrugged》的朋友(如果你还没看过,我郑重向你推荐该书)可能会直觉地感受到1957年出版的这部经典名著,早已把今天转移财富的手段揭示得一清二楚。在特定的历史时刻,国际银行家将通过“自我摧毁”的方式偷窃社会财富。这是一种匪夷所思的思路,却又完全合乎逻辑。
中国必须认清对手的战略意图,决不能让“二房”轻易破产和赖帐!“二房”的白条必须由美国财政部买单,如果达不成该意图,则公开宣称将大举抛售美国国债,实施金融战略威慑!
美国次贷危机可能本质上就是一场规模庞大的和史无前例的“赖帐和偷窃”的金融骗局!!!
Too Big to Fail, or to Survive
By
WILLIAM POOLE
Published: July 27, 2008
CRITICS of the Congressional housing package complain that we are now committing taxpayers to huge new outlays to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That view is wrong: Congressional inaction over the past 15 years had already committed taxpayers to the bailout.
Congress could and should have required Fannie and Freddie — which enjoy a peculiar and highly advantageous status as quasi-public agencies and quasi-private companies — to maintain more capital, but didn’t. Now the costs from Congressional inaction are becoming painfully apparent, and they cannot be avoided. To permit the two mortgage giants to default would set off a worldwide crisis. But we can decide what should become of Freddie and Fannie after this crisis. The best option is one getting little mention in Washington: get rid of them.
Because the government cannot permit Fannie and Freddie to default, their obligations are part and parcel of the full-faith-and-credit obligations of the United States. Thus, the national debt, usually viewed as the $5 trillion held by the public, is really $10 trillion once we add the Fannie and Freddie obligations and the mortgage-backed securities they guarantee.
For now, the Congressional Budget Office has entered a “place holder” of $25 billion to cover the bailout costs over the next two years but recognizes that this is a guess. The important issue is not the 2009 outlay, but the total that will be required eventually. Even if the two firms are technically insolvent, the market will continue to buy their obligations readily, for it understands that they are fully backed by the government.
Given this faith on the part of the marketplace, there will be no immediate catastrophe that would force the federal government to provide additional capital to Fannie and Freddie. The situation is similar to the one in the 1980s, when many savings and loans were technically insolvent yet had no difficulty attracting deposits, as they were covered by federal deposit insurance. So the federal government has the option of delaying any ultimate resolution of the Fannie-Freddie mess, as it did with the savings and loans 20 years ago, in hopes that the two giants can dig themselves out of the hole. Still, it seems more likely that — again, just as in the 1980s — the longer we delay, the higher the eventual taxpayer cost will be.
Freddie Mac, according to its own fair-value accounts for the end of March, is technically insolvent — the estimated market value of its liabilities is greater than the estimated market value of its assets. Fannie Mae has a small positive net worth. In coming quarters, these figures may deteriorate because of accounting adjustments (some of the assets are questionable) and continuing defaults on mortgages. The eventual losses could run to several hundred billion dollars.
Whatever the amount of the bailout, even if “only” $25 billion, the real question is not immediate survival of the loan giants but their long-term future. Instead of being regarded as too big to fail,we should look at them as too big to liquidate quickly.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not essential to the mortgage market; if they were put out of business in an orderly fashion over 5 to 10 years, the market would pick up the business they abandon. Fannie and Freddie exist to provide guarantees for mortgage-backed securities trading in the market. The business is simply insurance.
There are lots of insurance businesses around: property, auto, life and many others. These markets work fine without any government-sponsored enterprises. They are not highly concentrated into a small number of dominant players whose failure would threaten the entire economy; rather, lots of companies compete and spread the risk. Indeed, there are well-established firms in mortgage insurance, but their growth has been stunted by the special advantages Fannie and Freddie enjoy.
In fact,there has already been a test case for how the mortgage market would function without Fannie and Freddie. After an accounting scandal in 2005, regulators severely constrained their activities. The nation’s total residential mortgage debt outstanding rose by $1.176 trillion in that year, even though Fannie’s and Freddie’s stakes rose by only $169 billion, just 14.4 percent of the total. In essence, the market barely noticed that the two agencies’ private competitors were providing 85 percent of the increase in mortgage debt in 2005.
There are more general economic reasons for liquidating Fannie and Freddie, the biggest being that it is very dangerous to maintain such a large role in any market for only two operators. Markets work best when numerous firms compete against each other.
And then there is moral hazard. Knowing they had a federal backstop, Fannie and Freddie held too little capital and the market financed their activities at interest rates very close to those enjoyed by the government. Now we are living through the result. Does it make sense to reconstitute them so that they can engage in a repeat performance?
Some believe that tighter regulation is the answer. I am skeptical of that because I know the extent to which the regulatory system is tied up in Fannie’s and Freddie’s political activities. I find it deeply troubling that Fannie and Freddie, essentially in receivership to the secretary of the Treasury today, continue to employ lobbyists and hand out campaign contributions to influence the legislative debate over their own futures. Fannie and Freddie paid out more than $170 million to lobbyists over the last decade — more than General Electric spent. Government departments cannot hire lobbyists or give money to campaigns — why should Fannie and Freddie, now wards of the government, be permitted to do so?
The long-term health of the mortgage market is too important to be left to only two firms. If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can survive as vigorous competitors without the special government privileges they’ve long enjoyed, fine. But if they insist on coming back to life as public-private hybrids with all sorts of unfair federal advantages, we’ll only be setting ourselves up for more disasters.The wisest move, in the end, is to carefully let them wither away.
William Poole, a fellow at the Cato Institute, was the chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 1998 to 2008.
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